Recession glam smells like nerve and neroli

I spent last week testing blotters at lunch, the way you do when you choose sensuality over another salad. The mood in stores is unmistakable, quieter traffic, louder perfume. This is Recession Glam, and it is not a contradiction. It is the decision to skip the bag and keep the bottle, to trade dopamine dressing for dopamine spritzing.

Here is the spine of it. Euromonitor expects fragrance to drive 23% of beauty’s total expansion, with a 5.5% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. That is not hype, that is a category flexing while other corners of luxury count the cost. Perfume makes perfect sense right now, it is intimate, it is cultural, it is daily, and it asks for no logo to perform.

I see it in the way shoppers talk to me. They want character that lingers on a scarf, not a seasonal drop that vanishes in six weeks. They want elegance that fits into a life of spreadsheets and subway seats, something that says I still choose pleasure even if I choose it in 50 milliliters. A good scent is an optimistic decision you make at 7 a.m., and optimism is having a moment.

There is a practical engine under the poetry. Fragrance travels across borders of age and gender more easily than most beauty. It photographs less on the feed, which I love, because it belongs to your pulse points first. It is also collectible without being conspicuous, and in a cautious economy that is catnip.

If you work in the industry, read the room. Smaller formats will keep seducing. Discovery kits will outperform. Stories that honor place, ritual, and raw materials will land harder than yet another “It” anything. And if you are simply shopping for yourself, trust your nose, not a mood board. Spray, walk, return to your wrist after coffee. If it still whispers your name, that is your luxury.

Recession or not, we keep our rituals. The bottle on the dresser stays. The lift in the shoulders stays. Sillage is the last thing I plan to cut from my budget, and judging by Euromonitor’s forecast, I am not alone.